In a startling revelation this Wednesday, scientists around the globe reported an unexpected encounter with a previously undetected asteroid. The small space rock, designated 2024 RW1, was a mere meter wide and entered Earth's atmosphere only eight hours after its discovery. It streaked across the sky above the Philippines before disintegrating. While this event caused no harm, it underscores the ongoing risks posed by asteroids and the necessity for enhanced monitoring and preparedness.
Experts have identified several asteroids that pose potential collision threats to Earth. Here are the most concerning:
1 . Bennu Discovered in 1999, asteroid Bennu is the most significant threat currently known. At 1,574 feet in diameter and 67 million tonnes in weight, Bennu is larger than the Empire State Building and 200 times heavier. NASA predicts a 1 in 2,700 chance of Bennu impacting Earth on September 24, 2182. If it were to collide, the impact would unleash energy equivalent to 1.4 billion tonnes of TNT, far exceeding the combined power of all nuclear weapons ever detonated.
2 . 2023 DW Nicknamed the "Valentine’s Day asteroid," 2023 DW is projected to have a significant collision risk with Earth on February 14, 2046. With a diameter of 166 feet, it’s comparable to the asteroid responsible for the 2013 Chelyabinsk event. Though initial estimates suggested a concerning 1 in 607 chance of impact, recent data has significantly lowered this risk.
3 . 1950 DA Measuring an imposing 4,265 feet in diameter and weighing 71 million tonnes, asteroid 1950 DA poses the most severe threat. A collision would release energy equivalent to 75 billion tonnes of TNT, potentially triggering a global catastrophe akin to the extinction event that wiped out the dinosaurs. Currently, it has a 1 in 34,500 chance of impacting Earth on March 16, 2880. In 2032, it will pass safely within 6,959,357 miles (11.2 million km). NASA and ESA are actively testing asteroid deflection strategies to mitigate future risks.
4 . 2023 TL4 Discovered last year, asteroid 2023 TL4 is a massive threat due to its size of 1,083 feet in diameter and weight of 43 million tonnes. Its potential impact could yield an explosion 150 times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba. Fortunately, the collision probability is relatively low, at 1 in 181,000, with a possible impact date of October 10, 2119.
5 . 2007 FT3 The so-called "lost asteroid" 2007 FT3 hasn’t been observed since 2007. Despite the uncertainty, NASA estimates a very low impact probability, with chances of 1 in 10 million (0.0000096%) on March 3, 2030, and 1 in 11.5 million (0.0000087%) on October 5, 2024. Should it impact, the energy released would be equivalent to 2.6 billion tonnes of TNT, potentially causing regional but not global devastation.
6 . 1979 XB Another "lost asteroid," 1979 XB has not been seen for about 40 years. Based on initial observations, it has a 1 in 1.8 million chance (0.000055%) of impacting Earth on December 14, 2113. If it were to collide, the impact would generate energy equivalent to 30 billion tonnes of TNT.
Asteroid impacts, while rare, are a genuine concern. NASA estimates that 48.5 tonnes of meteoric material enter Earth’s atmosphere daily, mostly burning up as shooting stars. Larger impacts are infrequent but can have severe consequences. To address this risk, NASA and the European Space Agency continue to develop and refine programs for tracking Near Earth Objects (NEOs), aiming to better predict and prepare for potential asteroid impacts.
Meet Bennu.
— NASA Artemis (@NASAArtemis) March 2, 2020
Bennu is a near-Earth asteroid that is being explored by NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission. OSIRIS-REx arrived on Bennu in Dec. 2018 and expected to find a surface similar to a sandy beach. Expectations did not match reality.
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